{"id":2051,"date":"2021-12-05T17:09:35","date_gmt":"2021-12-05T16:09:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/a2kadvisory.com\/?p=2051"},"modified":"2021-12-05T17:43:23","modified_gmt":"2021-12-05T16:43:23","slug":"kinshasas-hopes-and-the-coming-cobalt-crunch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/a2kadvisory.com\/fr\/2021\/12\/05\/kinshasas-hopes-and-the-coming-cobalt-crunch\/","title":{"rendered":"Kinshasa\u2019s hopes and the coming cobalt crunch"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A Baojun E100 electric vehicle stands plugged in to a charging station outside a SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co. Baojun E100 Customer Experience Center, a joint venture between SAIC Motor Corp., General Motors Co. and Liuzhou Wuling Automobile Industry Co., in Liuzhou, Guangxi province, China, on Wednesday, May 23, 2018. Photographer: Qilai Shen\/Bloomberg<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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These new resources, such as cobalt, lithium and manganese, are essential to cutting emissions and limiting climate change. But new developments pose their own challenges, which may yet come to hamper uptake of alternative resources.<\/p>

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has suggested demand for minerals to support the energy transition will double to 2040. If the world took the steps required to limit warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius, demand for these minerals would quadruple.<\/p>

Cobalt is perhaps the leading example of a contested mineral that will play a key role in the transition. Congo Kinshasa accounted for around 70% of supply in 2019. Russia and Australia provide around 4% each. Cobalt is mostly produced from copper mines.<\/p>

At a forum last week in Kinshasa, a number of high-ranking politicians and executives got together to talk over improved ways of pursuing opportunities.<\/p>

Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi said the country\u2019s minerals provided it with a \u201cstrategic position to influence the global renewable energy transition\u201d.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Building power<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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In particular, a\u00a0new study from BloombergNEF (BNEF)<\/a>\u00a0was touted as showing that building a 10,000 tonne battery cathode precursor plant in Congo would cost only $39 million. This would be cheaper than Poland, China or the US.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Producing in Congo Kinshasa would also have a lower environmental impact, the study said.<\/p>

The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) deputy executive secretary Antonio Pedro, in an interview, said the extractive business had been \u201cmodelled on those from colonial times. Most mines and extractive industries are still enclaves with no links to the local economy.\u201d<\/p>

There have been efforts in the past to tackle this challenge. \u201cIt\u2019s different this time around,\u201d he said. \u201cBNEF has strong credibility and it has come and said loudly that [Congo Kinshasa] beats any competition.\u201d<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Finding demand<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Europe is becoming the largest market for electric vehicles (EVs), Pedro continued. Currently, it imports most batteries from China and South Korea. The European Union is taking steps to improve supply chains for batteries, though.<\/p>

\u201cEurope could start producing its own batteries. But then it is caught up in the same problem of having to import raw materials. As a result, carbon credentials will not meet battery passport criteria,\u201d Pedro said.<\/p>

\u201cIf you were to manufacture batteries in Congo, your carbon credentials would be extremely good,\u201d he continued. Poland is one major competitor, producing battery precursors close to vehicle manufacturing centres. \u201cBut they use coal as their energy \u2013 so the carbon credentials are very poor.\u201d<\/p>

Cobalt demand could be anywhere\u00a0from six to 30 times higher than today\u2019s levels<\/a>, the IEA said, depending on how batteries evolve and climate policies. Existing mines, and projects under construction, would provide only half the required volumes in 2030.<\/p>

The US Department of Energy (DoE) has described cobalt as having the \u201chighest material supply chain risk\u201d for electric vehicles (EVs). It reports that for each EV battery with 100 kWh of storage, up to 20 kg of cobalt are required.<\/p>

Kinshasa expects that cobalt demand will double from 145,000 tonnes in 2020 to 290,000 tonnes by 2030.<\/p>

While Congo Kinshasa may produce much of the world\u2019s cobalt, China is the world\u2019s largest refiner of the resource. Its share of global cobalt processing is around 80%.<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Local challenges<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Bracewell\u2019s Gordon Stewart<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\u201cIt is unsurprising that the government of DRC is pressing to retain a larger share of the value chain in battery manufacture,\u201d Bracewell partner Gordon Stewart said.<\/p>

He drew a parallel with oil-rich African states. These have pushed investors to \u201cbuild refining capability onshore rather than exporting crude and having to import refined hydrocarbons, leaving the considerable refining value offshore and exacerbating balance of payments deficits\u201d.<\/p>

Companies would consider how much of the process they could transfer to Congo Kinshasa and other destinations, he said. \u201cIt may be efficient to refine the minerals close to the extraction but it\u2019s unlikely to be optimal from a supply chain perspective to manufacture end-user products such as the batteries themselves, so far away from the final market.\u201d<\/p>

There may be logistical challenges in such locations, such as a need for additional power generation investments and transportation.<\/p>

Stewart said international companies \u201cwill also have sensitivities around ensuring adequate protection for proprietary IP and the legal regimes available to secure it\u201d.<\/p>

There are certainly challenges in the short to medium term, Indigo Ellis, associate director at strategic advisory firm Africa Matters said.<\/p>

\u201cDomestic manufacturing has too many hurdles to overcome to be a viable option. Immediately, the DRC government must focus on developing the infrastructure and energy necessary for future production growth, and supporting investors who are seeking to explore for other green minerals, including nickel,\u201d she said.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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One area of potential interest would be in regional collaboration. Ellis cited SADC or some focus from the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could help tackle some of the Congolese hurdles.<\/p>

\u201cHowever, Kinshasa is wedded to the idea of hosting the production site, so politically, it would be a difficult bridge to cross,\u201d she said.<\/p>

Such a concept finds favour at UNECA. Pedro said the production of battery precursors would need a host of additional resources, such as manganese and nickel. Gabon and South Africa are major manganese heavyweights and Madagascar and Botswana have nickel. <\/span>Such co-operation would \u201cenable us to move even further up the value chain\u201d, the UNECA official said.<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Legal concerns<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Yellow taxi van vehicles line the streets in the Victoire district of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, on Friday, Jan. 11, 2019. Photographer: John Wessels\/Bloomberg<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Along the way, there are challenges around investments in Congo Kinshasa. The country has a reputation for opaque business deals.<\/p>

The Sentry\u00a0issued a new report this week highlighting allegations<\/a>\u00a0around the Congolese mining sector. Based on leaked documents, it raised allegations around \u201cstate capture\u201d and links between various Kinshasa officials and Chinese companies.<\/p>

Another aspect that people must increasingly bear in mind is that of local working conditions.<\/p>

Stewart raised a potential tension in the push to tackle climate change. \u201cAn interesting dynamic inherent in the ESG conversation is the potential for tension between the \u201cE\u201d and the \u201cS\u201d and the \u201cG\u201d given the supply chain associated with the minerals required for the energy transition technology,\u201d he said.<\/p>

\u201cThe electrification of the UK\u2019s transportation improves the air quality in London and reduces the end-user carbon footprint but potentially comes at the cost of increasing damage to natural habitats and <\/span>use of labour subjected to less robust health and safety and working conditions<\/a>\u00a0in the countries sourcing the materials.\u201d<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Scrutiny<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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One way to tackle this is through increased consumer awareness and legislation. The Bracewell partner noted changing laws in Europe on this topic.<\/p>

\u201cLegislatures such as in France and Germany have passed laws requiring international companies above certain thresholds to take responsibility for understanding their entire supply chain with respect to ESG and human rights considerations and thereby requiring producers to operate responsibly,\u201d he said.<\/p>

Africa Matters\u2019 Ellis described tracing supply chains as \u201cone of the biggest threats to Congolese cobalt supply\u201d. Tackling pressure on supply chains will involve all parties working together, she said. This would include the national and regional governments, NGOs, mining companies and partners.<\/p>

\u201cThere\u2019s no easy answer to traceability,\u201d Ellis said. \u201cEfforts made so far must encompass stakeholders from across the supply chain to have meaningful impacts on transparency.\u201d<\/p>

Congo Kinshasa launched its Entreprise G\u00e9n\u00e9rale du Cobalt (EGC) in March with the specific aim of supporting \u201cresponsibly sourced artisanal cobalt\u201d. This small-scale or artisanal sector accounts for around 20% of Congolese cobalt production but has been often linked with child labour.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Throwing down money<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Recent discussions have raised the perception that the US has fallen behind China in securing cobalt supplies.<\/p>

The White House, in June, noted China\u2019s substantial processing volumes and limited domestic reserves. It has been able to reach this through \u201cits aggressive investment in processing capacity coupled with foreign direct investment for ores and concentrates\u201d.<\/p>

Much of this investment has been in Congo Kinshasa. China made a number of major deals into mining in the Central African state.<\/span><\/div><\/div>

Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi has raised concerns about Chinese investments, launching a review earlier this year into the Sicomines project, Bloomberg reported in September. This saw China commit to an investment of around $3 billion in mining projects with another $3bn going into infrastructure.<\/p>

It is certain that China has provided substantial support for its companies to expand into mining.<\/p>

China Molybdenum has proved acquisitive, buying up mines such as Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu from Freeport-McMoRan. The New York Times reported that\u00a0some of the $2.65 billion paid by China Moly<\/a>\u00a0for Tenke Fungurume came from state-backed banks.<\/p>

Some elements of this move seem similar to China\u2019s support of its national oil companies (NOCs) in the 2000s. With strong state backing, Chinese companies made significant inroads into established oil production hotspots such as Angola.<\/p>

There were some successes but there were equally challenges in navigating politics around the world. Furthermore, Beijing\u2019s support is not always constant, as can be seen in the rise and fall of Sam Pa, a buccaneering oilman who seized opportunities before\u00a0vanishing from view, allegedly into Chinese detention<\/a>.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Great games<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Geopolitics are undoubtedly at play, Ellis said. She cautioned, though, that this was something of a simplification, which bypasses the agency of the Congolese government and people.<\/p>

\u201cThe review of Chinese mining contracts \u2013 particularly Sicomines \u2013 is as much to do with domestic politics and a feeling that the previous administration sold the country\u2019s assets for an unfair price, as geopolitical concerns,\u201d she said.<\/p>

Beijing has provided some degree of support for its companies to secure overseas minerals. The US has taken a different tack. In April this year, the US DoE set out plans to reduce the use of cobalt in battery manufacturing. There have also been <\/span>efforts to find domestic sources<\/a>.<\/span><\/div><\/div>

A statement said companies have \u201crecognised the risks of co-dependency\u201d. As such, they are moving to low or no cobalt in cathodes. Most research focuses on nickel, which has good energy density but challenges around capacity fade and impedance.<\/p>

US research focuses on minimising this nickel challenge, with some early successes, the DoE has said. The government considers nickel to be less of a risky proposition than cobalt.<\/p>

Nickel imports come from \u201ca diverse set of allied nations\u201d, with\u00a068% coming from Canada, Norway, Australia and Finland<\/a>. The White House has expressed concerns about future supplies of nickel, though.<\/p>

It expects Indonesia to dominate production to 2040. No doubt the US will keep a close eye on Jakarta\u2019s processing plans.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Source : energyvoice<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The energy transition is seen as marking a shift away from the \u201cbad old\u201d habits of the fossil fuel industry, but accessing the strategic resources pose their own often-overlooked problems.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2052,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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Kinshasa\u2019s hopes and the coming cobalt crunch<\/a><\/blockquote>